365 research outputs found
The accuracy of valuations: expectation and reality
The relationship between valuations and the subsequent sale price continues to be a matter of both theoretical and practical interest. This paper reports the analysis of over 700 property sales made during the 1974/90 period. Initial results imply an average under-valuation of 7% and a standard error of 18% across the sample. A number of techniques are applied to the data set using other variables such as the region, the type of property and the return from the market to explain the difference between the valuation and the subsequent sale price. The analysis reduces the unexplained error; the bias is fully accounted for and the standard error is reduced to 15.3%. This model finds that about 6% of valuations over-estimated the sale price by more than 20% and about 9% of the valuations under-estimated the sale prices by more than 20%. The results suggest that valuations are marginally more accurate than might be expected, both from consideration of theoretical considerations and from comparison with the equivalent valuation in equity markets
The Accuracy of Valuations - Expectation and Reality
The relationship between valuations and the subsequent sale price continues to be a matter of both theoretical and practical interest. This paper reports the analysis of over 700 property sales made during the 1974/90 period. Initial results imply an average under-valuation of 7% and a standard error of 18% across the sample. A number of techniques are applied to the data set using other variables such as the region, the type of property and the return from the market to explain the difference between the valuation and the subsequent sale price. The analysis reduces the unexplained error; the bias is fully accounted for and the standard error is reduced to 15.3%. This model finds that about 6% of valuations over-estimated the sale price by more than 20% and about 9% of the valuations under-estimated the sale prices by more than 20%. The results suggest that valuations are marginally more accurate than might be expected, both from consideration of theoretical considerations and from comparison with the equivalent valuation in equity markets.
Mixed Cumulative Distribution Networks
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are a popular framework to express
multivariate probability distributions. Acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs)
are generalizations of DAGs that can succinctly capture much richer sets of
conditional independencies, and are especially useful in modeling the effects
of latent variables implicitly. Unfortunately there are currently no good
parameterizations of general ADMGs. In this paper, we apply recent work on
cumulative distribution networks and copulas to propose one one general
construction for ADMG models. We consider a simple parameter estimation
approach, and report some encouraging experimental results.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure
Deep AutoRegressive Networks
We introduce a deep, generative autoencoder capable of learning hierarchies
of distributed representations from data. Successive deep stochastic hidden
layers are equipped with autoregressive connections, which enable the model to
be sampled from quickly and exactly via ancestral sampling. We derive an
efficient approximate parameter estimation method based on the minimum
description length (MDL) principle, which can be seen as maximising a
variational lower bound on the log-likelihood, with a feedforward neural
network implementing approximate inference. We demonstrate state-of-the-art
generative performance on a number of classic data sets: several UCI data sets,
MNIST and Atari 2600 games.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on
Machine Learning (ICML), Beijing, China, 201
Consumption inequality and income uncertainty
This paper places the debate over using consumption or income in studies of inequality growth in a formal intertemporal setting. It highlights the importance of permanent and transitory income uncertainty in the evaluation of growth in consumption inequality. We derive conditions under which the growth of variances and covariances of income and consumption can be used to separately identify the growth in the variance of permanent and transitory income shocks. Household data from Britain for the period 1968-1992 are used to show a strong growth in transitory inequality toward the end of this period, while younger cohorts are shown to face significantly higher levels of permanent inequality
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